2024 Election Betting Odds: Joe Biden Has 8% Chance Of Winning According To Sportsbooks, Prediction Markets
Sportsbooks and prediction markets show President Joe Biden with low odds of winning the 2024 presidential election.
The odds continue to shift with calls for Biden to drop out of the race growing.
What Happened: Despite calls to step down, Biden has brushed off concerns and his campaign team remains committed to the president staying in the race as of Friday morning.
Biden has been losing ground in election polls since the first presidential debate and odds for Donald Trump to win have soared at sportsbooks and on prediction markets.
Here are the current betting odds for the 2024 election from Covers, using data from Bet365 and the betting odds from May, late June and earlier in July.
| Candidate | July 19 Odds | July 15 Odds | July 5 Odds | June 29 Odds | May Odds |
| Donald Trump | -200 | -250 | -175 | -188 | -110 |
| Kamala Harris | +333 | +800 | +400 | +2,200 | +4,000 |
| Joe Biden | +1,200 | +500 | +800 | +350 | +130 |
| Michelle Obama | +1,600 | +1,800 | +1,200 | +2,200 | +1,400 |
| Gavin Newsom | +2,200 | +2,000 | +1,600 | +550 | +4,000 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +6,600 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +6,000 | +2,500 |
At odds of -200, Trump now has an implied 69.2% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Trump's odds have hit as high as -333 at some sportsbooks in recent weeks.
The chart shows how drastic the odd changes have been over the last two months.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Biden have flipped back and forth several times depending on the current day. Harris is now listed with odds more than 3x better than Biden. The implied odds show Harris with a 25% chance of winning the 2024 election and Biden's odds stand at only 8.3%.
For the Democratic Party, Harris has odds of -150 to win at Bet365, an implied 60% chance of winning. Biden is +300, or around 25%, followed by Michelle Obama (+800), Gavin Newsom (+1,000) and Gretchen Whitmer (+1,200).
Sportsbook BetMGM, which is a joint venture of MGM Resorts Worldwide (NYSE:MGM) and Entain, show the following odds in the U.K.:
- Trump: -286
- Harris: +350
- Biden: +900
- Obama: +2,000
- Newsom: +2,500
- Whitmer: +3,300
- Kennedy Jr.: +5,000
- Clinton: +6,600
Biden has an 8% chance of winning compared to 61% for Trump and 18% for Harris according to the BetMGM odds, reported by Action Network.
Read Also: Pelosi Tells Biden He Can’t Beat Trump: She’ll ‘Do Everything In Her Power’ To Prevent 2024 Run
Why It’s Important: The 2024 presidential election is less than four months away. The Republican National Convention has concluded with Trump as the official candidate and the party showing unity behind the former president.
The Democratic National Convention is set to be held in August and time could be running out to replace Biden if he steps down or to convince him to step aside ahead of the nomination process.
On Prediction market Polymarket, Trump is the heavy betting favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of 66%. Trailing Trump are Harris at 18% and Biden at 8%.
For the Democratic nomination, Harris is the favorite at 50%, with Biden second at 28%. Just a few days ago, Biden was the favorite at 70% with Harris second at 18%.
Polymarket also has several prediction markets related to the potential of Biden resigning or dropping out of the 2024 election listed below with the odds of yes.
- Drop out of the 2024 election: 72% yes
- Resign by July 31: 4% yes
- Drop out of 2024 election by July 31: 60% yes
- Finish current presidential term: 73% yes
- Drops out of 2024 election before Democratic National Convention: 70% yes
Polymarket users can make bets using cryptocurrency like USDC (CRYPTO: USDC), Polygon (CRYTO: MATIC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). Winning wagers pay out $1 for each betting market.
Read Next:
• Trump Vs. Biden: Former President Posts Largest 2024 Election Lead Since February; Does Kamala Harris Poll Better?
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