AIR Communities Reports Fourth Quarter 2023 Results

Apartment Income REIT Corp. ("AIR") (NYSE:AIRC) announced today results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023.

Terry Considine, Chief Executive Officer, comments: "AIR's operating performance in 2023 was excellent… the highest in our peer group. We improved our portfolio with co-investment from two of the most respected global property investors. In 2024, we will continue to focus on driving predictable growth in recurring free cash flow… attracting high quality residents, and retaining them with great service from productive and caring teammates. As ever, we expect to improve… in operations, portfolio quality, operating scale, operating margins and quality of earnings, all with a safe balance sheet… and a focus on higher free cash flow and NAV growth per share."

• Full year Same Store Revenue, Net Operating Income ("NOI"), and Free Cash Flow ("FCF") up 7.9%, 9.3%, and 9.5%, respectively
  • Transacted blended lease rate growth up 5.6%
  • Resident retention up 100 bps in the year to 62.3%
  • Controllable expenses up only 20 bps
  • Full year Same Store NOI and FCF margins of 74.5% and 68.4%, up to all-time highs
• Run-Rate FFO and AFFO per share increased 7.8% and 7.7%, respectively, for the full year
  • Recurring operations have generated Run-Rate FFO and AFFO per share CAGRs of 9.5% and 10.7%, respectively, since 2021
• Pro forma FFO of $2.41 per share, meeting the mid-point of 2023 guidance
• 2.1 million shares ($71 million) repurchased in the fourth quarter at an average $34.39 per share
  • 13.4 million outstanding shares and OP units (8% of total) repurchased since year-end 2021
• 2024 guidance:
  • Continued focus on steady growth in unlevered FCF
    • Partial offsets result from increased interest expense
    • Q3 2023 paired trades accretive to FCF and accretive to Run-Rate FFO before year-end
    • Potential risks in insurance, real estate taxes, and amounts of transaction-related income
    • Potential upsides in operational initiatives and paired trades, magnified by joint ventures
  • 2.0% to 5.6% range in expected Same Store NOI growth, 3.8% at the midpoint
  • 2.3% to 6.3% range in expected Same Store FCF growth, 4.3% at the midpoint
  • Run-Rate FFO per share between $2.33 and $2.43, up 0.8% (at the midpoint) over 2023 Run-Rate FFO per share of $2.36
  • Run-Rate AFFO per share between $2.07 and $2.17, up 1.4% (at the midpoint) over 2023 Run-Rate AFFO per share of $2.09
  • Year-end Net Leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre of approximately 6.0x, with fluctuations for intra-quarter transaction activity; at this level, Net Leverage approximates 33%, a low level for the AIR business model with no exposure to construction, second mortgage lending, or short-term rentals.

Fourth Quarter and 2023 Full Year Results:

*In the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2022, $0.10 and $0.02, respectively, of our Pro forma adjustments are non-cash items. Please see Supplement Schedule 1 for further information regarding the Pro forma adjustments.

**In 2023, nonrecurring contributions are swap acceleration income from refinancing floating rate debt with long-term fixed rate financing offset partially by higher-than-anticipated casualty and legal costs. In 2022, nonrecurring contributions are cash income received from prepayment of the Aimco note and property leases.

Same Store Portfolio: Operating Update

Same Store Portfolio: 63 properties; 85% of full year rental revenue

Components of Same Store Revenue Growth:

*AIR fourth quarter bad debt was 90 basis points on a gross basis, and zero net of recoveries.

Rental Rates & Occupancy:

Capital Allocation

Acquisition Portfolio: Operating Update

AIR's acquisitions are expected to experience a rate of NOI and FCF growth during the initial years of AIR ownership that is higher than the rate in the Same Store Portfolio as operational improvements are realized and physical upgrades are completed.

*Class of 2021 acquisitions are included in, and contributed 20-basis points to, reported Same Store NOI growth metrics.

**Class of 2022 expenses increased in the quarter primarily as a result of a tax revaluation in Florida, offset by continued improvement in controllable expenses across the Class. Favorable expenses in Other Real Estate reflect AIR's optimization of controllable expenses. Both portfolios continue to perform in line with expectations.

Acquisitions

• AIR made no acquisitions in the fourth quarter

• In January 2024, AIR acquired an apartment community located in Raleigh, North Carolina with 384 apartment homes for $86.5 million; we expect a 5.7% forward NOI cap rate at stabilization in the third quarter of 2024, and an unlevered IRR of >10%

Share Repurchases

• 2.1 million shares repurchased in the fourth quarter at an average price of $34.39 per share for $71.2 million, representing an estimated NOI cap rate of 6.5%

• Outstanding shares and OP units reduced by 4.8 million (3%) in the full year, and 13.4 million (8%) inclusive of share repurchases since year-end 2021

Balance Sheet Update

• Fourth quarter Net Leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre of 6.1x was 0.1x greater than previously anticipated due to opportunistic fourth quarter share repurchases

• Available liquidity was $1.9 billion at year-end, with no debt maturities in 2024

• Subsequent to December 31, 2023 we entered into interest rate hedges to fix 100% of the currently outstanding revolving credit facility borrowings at 4.9% and 100% of our term loan borrowings at 3.9%, thereby reducing floating rate leverage at year-end from 3.5% to zero

Portfolio & Financial Highlights

Note: All metrics presented at AIR share, unless noted

*AIR targets CSAT scores (as defined within the Glossary) of 4.25 and higher. 4.0 or higher is considered world-class according to The Kingsley Index

**Please refer to the Glossary for the source of AIR's estimated gross asset value and assets under management

Historical Indexed Same Store Portfolio Performance

2024 Outlook

• 2024 Run-Rate FFO per share of $2.38, at the midpoint, reflects 2023 Run-Rate FFO per share of $2.36 adjusted for:
  • $0.11 of incremental NOI contribution from the Same Store Portfolio; less
  • ($0.07) resulting from higher interest expense
  • ($0.01) resulting from 2023 paired trades
  • ($0.01) resulting from other items
• First quarter Run-Rate FFO per share between $0.55 and $0.59, and Run-Rate AFFO per share between $0.48 and $0.52. Run-Rate FFO per share is anticipated to decline sequentially by $0.07 at the midpoint; $0.055 of which is the result of normal seasonality related to property operating expenses; payroll taxes and the timing of G&A costs. The remaining $0.015 decline is due to the timing of short duration service income and casualty losses.
• Same Store Portfolio increased by seven properties in 2024, resulting in $64 million and $46 million of incremental Revenue and NOI, respectively, added to 2023 Same Store results
• A range of $50 million to $54 million in Other Real Estate NOI in 2024
• Third-party service income of $0.11 per share with (i) $0.06 to be earned from existing property and asset management agreements and (ii) $0.05 anticipated from future short-duration service income; an amount similar to that achieved in 2022 and 2023
• Supply impacts in line with historical experience with elevated levels observed in Costa Mesa, CA; Center City in Philadelphia; the Edgewater district of Miami; select pockets of Washington, DC; and, surrounding the Anschutz Medical Campus in Aurora, CO. Additional information can be found in AIR's 3rd Quarter Earnings Release and Supplemental.

*AIR anticipates being an active participant in the 2024 transaction market funding purchases with property debt, and proceeds from paired trades and co-investment by joint venture partners. We intend to pursue investments that are accretive to our cost of capital by > 200 basis points on an unlevered IRR basis. Given uncertainty surrounding the cost of capital, volume of transactions, operating plans, and timing, we are not providing guidance on the impact of transaction activity on 2024 results.

At the midpoint, 2024 revenue growth is derived from the following:

* In September 2023, AIR published an early view on 2024 Same Store Revenue growth before consideration of 2024 Market growth. AIR now expects, at the midpoint, Same Store Revenue growth of 3.8%; above our previously published expectations. In addition to a 30 basis point contribution from 2024 market growth, we now anticipate incremental growth in average daily occupancy, offset by a lower contribution from the addition of the Class of 2022 to the same store pool. The lower contribution is a result of a slow down in blended lease rates at the Class of 2022 properties during the last four months of 2023 and the exclusion from the Same Store pool of one property due to property upgrades anticipated to disrupt operations. A 3.5% blended lease to lease rate will achieve the rate growth embedded in the midpoint of our revenue growth guidance. In January our signed blended rate growth was 3.8%.

Earnings Conference Call Information

Supplemental Information

The full text of this Earnings Release and the Supplemental Information referenced in this release is available on AIR's website at investors.aircommunities.com.

Glossary & Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial and Operating Measures

Financial and operating measures found in this Earnings Release and the Supplemental Information include certain financial measures used by AIR management that are measures not defined under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States ("GAAP"). Certain AIR terms and Non-GAAP measures are defined in the Glossary in the Supplemental Information and Non-GAAP measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures.

With respect to AIR's expectations under "Initiating 2024 guidance" and "2024 Outlook" above, AIR is not able to provide a quantitative reconciliation of Same Store FCF growth, Run-Rate FFO per share, Run-Rate AFFO per share and Year-end Net Leverage to Adjusted EBITDAre to the most directly comparable GAAP measures without unreasonable efforts, due to the forward-looking nature of these estimates and their inherent variability and uncertainty.

About AIR

Apartment Income REIT Corp (NYSE:AIRC) is a publicly traded, self-administered real estate investment trust ("REIT"). AIR's portfolio comprises 76 communities totaling 27,010 apartment homes located in 10 states and the District of Columbia. AIR offers a simple, predictable business model with focus on what we call the AIR Edge, the cumulative result of our focus on resident selection, satisfaction, and retention, as well as relentless innovation in delivering best-in-class property management. The AIR Edge is a durable operating advantage in driving organic growth, as well as making possible the opportunity for excess returns for properties new to AIR's platform. For additional information, please visit aircommunities.com.

Forward-looking Statements

This Earnings Release and Supplemental Information contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal securities laws, including, without limitation, statements regarding projected results and specifically forecasts of 2024 results, including but not limited to: NAREIT FFO, Pro forma FFO, Run-Rate FFO, Run-Rate AFFO and selected components thereof; expectations regarding consumer demand, growth in revenue and strength of other performance metrics and models; expectations regarding acquisitions, as well as sales, and joint ventures and the use of proceeds thereof; and AIR liquidity and leverage metrics. We caution investors not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations, estimates and assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties, that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: real estate and operating risks, including fluctuations in real estate values and the general economic climate in the markets in which we operate and competition for residents in such markets; national and local economic conditions, including inflation, the pace of job growth, and the level of unemployment; the amount, location, and quality of competitive new housing supply, which may be impacted by global supply chain disruptions; the timing and effects of acquisitions and dispositions; changes in operating costs, including energy costs; negative economic conditions in our geographies of operation; loss of key personnel; AIR's ability to maintain current or meet projected occupancy, rental rate, and property operating results; expectations regarding sales of apartment communities and the use of proceeds thereof; insurance risks, including the cost of insurance, and natural disasters and severe weather such as hurricanes; financing risks, including interest rate changes and the availability and cost of financing; the risk that cash flows from operations may be insufficient to meet required payments of principal and interest; the risk that earnings may not be sufficient to maintain compliance with debt covenants, including financial coverage ratios; legal and regulatory risks, including costs associated with prosecuting or defending claims and any adverse outcomes; the terms of laws and governmental regulations that affect us and interpretations of those laws and regulations; and possible environmental liabilities, including costs, fines, or penalties that may be incurred due to necessary remediation of contamination of apartment communities presently or previously owned by AIR. Other risks and uncertainties are described in filings by AIR with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Item 1A of AIR's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and subsequent filings with the SEC.

In addition, our current and continuing qualification as a real estate investment trust involves the application of highly technical and complex provisions of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the "Code"), and depends on our ability to meet the various requirements imposed by the Code, through actual operating results, distribution levels and diversity of stock ownership.

These forward-looking statements reflect management's judgment as of this date, and we assume no obligation to revise or update them to reflect future events or circumstances. This earnings release does not constitute an offer of securities for sale.

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