Apptopia Data Signals Material Improvement in Tinder Performance Heading into Match Group Earnings
BOSTON, Feb. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Apptopia, the leading provider of mobile consumer activity data, today released its Q4 2025 earnings preview for Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH), highlighting Tinder's performance, which the firm shows as tracking above Wall Street's consensus expectations.
Apptopia's Mobile Performance Index (MPI)* for Match Group correlates highly with one of the company's reported KPIs, Tinder Payers. It shows material improvement in year-over-year growth in Q4, while consensus outlook implies only modest acceleration.
Downloads in the United States are down 4.2% YoY. While downloads are negative, there is sequential improvement, starting back in Q2 2025. Daily active users fell 7.5% YoY in the US. Other Tinder engagement metrics are turning positive though, especially with Gen Z. Average Time Spent per DAU of younger users, aged 17-25, is up 13.9% YoY. It is up 5.1% for all users. While Average Time Spent per DAU is down slightly (-2.8% YoY) for female users, it rose 0.7%, QoQ.
This combination of trying-to-recover app downloads and rising engagement points to a better than expected outcome for Tinder Payers in 4Q25.
Another significant Match Group property is Hinge, where US Downloads are down 4.1% YoY. Daily active users are growing well, increasing 7.1% YoY. Other Hinge engagement metrics are weakening. Average Time Spent per DAU of younger users, aged 17-25, is down 29.7% YoY. It is down 16.2% for all users. Male users saw a steep decline in Average Time Spent per DAU (-25.4% YoY) while female users actually rose 4.5% in this metric. However, female Time Spent per DAU fell 26.8% QoQ.
"Our data shows Tinder's engagement metrics stabilizing, with improving younger user trends. Meanwhile Hinge faces growing headwinds in time spent despite strong user growth," said Tom Grant, VP of Research at Apptopia. "The material improvement in our MPI suggests Match Group's Tinder performance may exceed Street expectations heading into their Q4 2025 earnings report."
Tinder's engagement turnaround in 2025, particularly with Gen Z, is encouraging, but Hinge's weakening metrics among young users warrants close monitoring.
*MPI distills Apptopia's most valuable consumer signals — growth, engagement, and user segmentation — into a single proprietary metric. Our MPI gives investors our strongest and most comprehensive view of customer health and serves as a leading indicator for public company KPIs.
About Apptopia
Apptopia provides institutional investors with mobile app intelligence on publicly traded companies and their competitors. Its proprietary consumer panel of 15 million devices tracks engagement and cross-app behavior. These insights reveal how consumers shift between competitors, which segments are churning, and how engagement patterns signal business performance. This data serves as an early indicator of consumer trends affecting company revenues, helping hedge funds and investment banks make better decisions ahead of earnings.
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