EXCLUSIVE: Interest Rates Rode The Elevator Up, But Analyst Predicts They'll Take 'The Stairs Coming Down'
Interest rates are on everyone’s radar, but what’s the game plan amid the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold steady for now?
Benzinga interviewed Greg McBride, CFA, Senior Vice President of Bankrate, for his exclusive insights on the current state of the economy and his expectations with the future.
Interest Rates May Take The Stairs Coming Down
McBride offered some very actionable insights. In response to a question about the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged this time, McBride said, “Interest rates took the elevator going up, but they're going to take the stairs coming down.”
Per McBride, savers can capitalize on potentially lucrative returns that outpace inflation, from savings accounts, money markets, and CDs, provided they shop around for optimal deals. For borrowers, the mantra remains clear: prioritize slashing high-cost credit card debt.
His advice? “Always make at least your minimum payment on time – you can always pay more later.” It’s about dodging those pesky overdraft fees and late charges.
Real Estate Enthusiasts, Brace Yourselves
McBride’s forecast suggests a seller’s market, with limited inventory dictating terms. And falling mortgage rates? They might not spell relief as home prices continue their upward trajectory. “The housing market will continue to be characterized by high home prices, high financing costs, and a limited number of homes for sale,” said McBride.
This should be good news for those invested in the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:VNQ), the Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:SCHH), the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLRE) or the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR). Rising home prices often reflect a healthy real estate market, which can boost the value of real estate assets held within these ETFs.
Investors in mortgage ETFs such as the iShares MBS ETF (NYSE:MBB) and the Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (NYSE:VMBS) may see a mixed impact.
Rising home prices can increase the value of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) held within mortgage ETFs. This appreciation can lead to higher returns for investors holding these ETFs. However, higher home prices also make it more challenging for potential homebuyers to afford properties and/or to refinance their existing mortgages, potentially leading to decreased demand for mortgages.
Also Read: 10 Real Estate Stocks Move On Thursday: Fed Rate Cut Possibility Sparks Rally For Troubled Sector
Legislative Acts May Sway Sentiment, Let Diversified ETFs Steer Your Ship
When questioned on legislative juggernauts like the CHIPS Act and Infrastructure Act that promise economic shifts, McBride’s advice is refreshingly pragmatic: “Investors are best served building a low-cost, well-diversified portfolio.” Forget chasing fleeting trends; it’s consistency that builds wealth, he says.
Exchange-traded funds are a low-cost, diversified way to gain exposure and build wealth consistently. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:IVV) and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) are the most popular and largest ETFs for U.S. equity exposure.
When asked about legislative acts impacting consumer sentiment and spending behavior, McBride said, “When Americans have jobs and paychecks coming in, the money gets spent.” Legislative acts may sway sentiment, but economic fundamentals steer the ship.
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