Flood-Prone America Is Seeing More People Move Out Than In for the First Time Since 2019

A Redfin analysis of domestic migration data shows high-flood-risk counties lost nearly 30,000 more residents than they gained last year, driven largely by outflows from Miami and Houston

Flood-prone America is losing more residents than it's gaining for the first time since 2019, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket. High-flood-risk counties saw 29,027 more people move out than in last year. By comparison, low-flood-risk counties saw 35,941 more people move in than out—the largest gain since 2019.

Major hubs in coastal Florida, Texas, New York and Louisiana were driving forces behind the national net outflow last year. Miami-Dade County, where over one-third of homes face high flood risk, saw 67,418 more people move out than in—the largest net outflow among the 310 high-flood-risk counties Redfin analyzed. Next comes Harris County, TX (home to Houston), which saw a net outflow of 31,165. In third place is Kings County, NY (home to Brooklyn), which saw a net outflow of 28,158. Also notably on the top 10 list with a net outflow of 4,950 is Orleans Parish, LA (home to New Orleans), where 99.1% of homes face high flood risk—the highest share in the nation.

Most of these counties have been seeing more people move out than in for years but some experienced an acceleration in this trend last year. For example, Miami's net outflow widened to 67,418 in 2024 from 50,637 in 2023—the largest acceleration of any high-flood-risk county.

This is based on a Redfin analysis of domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau (excludes immigration) and climate-risk scores from First Street. Redfin defines a high-risk county as one that ranks in the top 10% when it comes to the share of homes facing high flood risk—in other words, counties with 23.7%-99.1% of homes facing high risk. Migration data for 2024 covers July 1, 2023-July 1, 2024. A "net outflow" measures how many more people moved out of than into an area, while a "net inflow" measures how many more people moved in than out.

Redfin agents in flood-prone areas say high housing costs, climate risk, rising insurance premiums and politics are among the factors that have made people reluctant to stay or move in.

"A lot of people moved to Miami during the pandemic, thinking life would be a vacation," said local Redfin real estate agent Ozzie Linares. "Many of those people are now leaving because they've realized living here isn't a piece of cake—the city has become increasingly expensive and extreme weather events are on the rise. We were just under a flash flood warning due to higher-than-normal king tides."

Linares said his homeowner's insurance premium has risen to $6,700 per year from less than $2,000 two years ago, and his flood insurance premium has climbed to $1,250 from around $400. Insurance premiums are rising across the country due to intensifying climate risk.

Soaring insurance costs, HOA dues and condo special assessments have added insult to injury for buyers already contending with high home prices and mortgage rates—especially in Florida.

Pinellas County, FL, which is on the Gulf Coast and home to St. Petersburg, last year experienced its first net outflow in many years. Local Redfin real estate agent Dawn Liedtke said this exodus intensified after Hurricane Helene hit at the end of 2024, causing an estimated $93 million in damage.

"A huge part of the Pinellas County population was forced to leave because their homes were flooded in Hurricane Helene," Liedtke said. "It made people reevaluate whether they want to live in an area with flood risk. A lot of sellers I worked with after the storm moved to non flood zones in neighboring Pasco County, but we also saw many people move out of state."

Houston, Which Faces Multiple Climate Risks, Sees Exodus of Residents Intensify

Harris County, TX saw its net outflow widen to 31,165 in 2024 from 22,035 in 2023—the second biggest acceleration among high-flood-risk counties.

Nearly 1 in 3 (31.3%) homes face high flood risk in Harris County, but Houston also faces other climate risks, namely extreme heat—100% of homes in Harris County face high heat risk. The area has also faced bouts of extreme cold, including the Great Texas Freeze of 2021, which caused widespread power outages.

"People are always nervous about flooding in Houston, but it's no longer the top concern like it was after Hurricane Harvey," said local Redfin Premier real estate agent Roze Swartz. "I'm working with a lot of home sellers who moved to Texas from the West Coast during the pandemic and now want to leave because Houston isn't what they expected—they don't like the extreme heat or the politics. They want to go hiking or kayaking on a whim, but Houstonians pretty much stay indoors from May to September due to the heat. A lot of out-of-towners are cashing out their equity and moving back home."

Affordability is also a factor. Home prices in the Sun Belt, which includes Texas and Florida, exploded during the pandemic homebuying boom. They're no longer growing at breakneck speed but remain much higher than they were before the pandemic.

"A lot of people moved to Texas during the pandemic because it was relatively affordable, but property taxes and insurance costs have gone up so much that some homeowners are being forced to sell," Swartz said. "I just met a seller who bought her home a year ago and now has to sell it because she can no longer afford her monthly payments, which isn't an uncommon situation. I even have one seller who went into foreclosure."

While some Houston residents are moving out of state, others are moving to the suburbs. Montgomery County, TX, a low-flood-risk county directly north of Houston, saw 23,919 more people move in than out last year—the largest net inflow in the country. Just 14.7% of homes in Montgomery County face high flood risk.

Some Flood-Prone Areas Are Still Seeing More People Move In Than Out

Among the 310 high-flood-risk counties Redfin analyzed, 132 saw more people move out than in last year. That means nearly all of the remaining 178 high-risk counties experienced net inflows (two counties saw net migration of 0). Many of the high-risk counties that saw net inflows are in Texas or Florida.

St. Johns County, FL (just south of Jacksonville) saw 11,661 more people move in than out last year—the largest net inflow of any high-flood-risk county. Next comes Fort Bend County, TX (just outside of Houston), with a net inflow of 10,467, followed by Volusia County, FL (home to Daytona Beach), with a net inflow of 9,724.

Flood-prone places with the biggest net inflows are on average more affordable than flood-prone places with the biggest net outflows, which may explain why there are still more people moving in than out.

In Some Flood-Prone Areas, Residents Who Leave Are Replaced by Immigrants

Many flood-prone areas are seeing more people move out than in domestically but continue to experience population growth. That's in large part due to immigration. Miami-Dade County's population jumped 2.3% to 2.8 million in 2024, outpacing national population growth. That can be explained by net international migration of 123,835—the highest of any county in the nation. Six of the 10 high-flood-risk counties with the largest domestic net outflows in 2024 saw their overall populations grow.

"Many of the Americans who left flood-prone areas last year were replaced by immigrants, who in the past were able to evacuate to shelters when disaster struck," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. "But with the government cracking down on immigration enforcement, some immigrants are now hesitant to leave their homes during storms because they are afraid they could be detained."

Many flood-prone areas saw their populations grow in 2024, but the Trump Administration's crackdown on immigration could reverse that trend in 2025. Linares, the Miami agent, said he has seen a significant decrease in international business over the past eight months.

"Before I had homebuyers from Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil—any Spanish-speaking country you can think of," he said. "They are non-existent in Miami now. We're also seeing fewer people move in from Canada."

To view the full report, including charts, more county-level data and a full methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/climate-migration-real-estate-2025

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