Growth in Originations Expected Across Multiple Credit Products in 2025
CHICAGO, Feb. 20, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Despite recent data calling into question the possibility of interest rate cuts over this year, new account originations across several credit products are still expected to grow in 2025. These findings were released today in conjunction with TransUnion's (NYSE:TRU) newly issued Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR).
Following multiple years of depressed origination growth, largely driven by stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates and elevated home and vehicle prices, new auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans are expected to see gains in 2025. A myriad of factors, not the least of which is lenders' continued caution in their underwriting strategies, will likely temper the overall rate of growth across these products.
"The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will not rush into interest rate cuts, potentially keeping rates at a level that could give consumers pause," said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. "However, we still believe that many consumer credit products will have higher originations in 2025. This will range from modest growth in auto and unsecured personal loans to more significant increases in mortgage."
Originations are Expected to Grow YoY Across Many Credit Products in 2025
| Loan Product | Percent Change in Origination Growth |
| Auto | +2.7% |
| Mortgage (Purchase) | +13.3% |
| Unsecured Personal Loans | +5.7% |
Changes in originations are also impacted by trends within these lending products. A deeper dive into the origination picture for each loan product can be found below:
- One key driver of the forecasted growth in auto originations is new light vehicle sales, which have been forecasted to grow 2.8% in 2025. However, forecasted growth may be tempered as industry and consumers navigate potential policy shifts introduced by the new administration. In addition, relatively high interest rates, inflation remaining above 2%, and a still recovering used vehicle supply may also mitigate auto originations growth.
- Mortgage originations are forecast to increase from approximately 4.6 million in 2024 to approximately 5.7 million in 2025, with most of those being purchase originations (~3.8 million).
- Unsecured personal loan lenders are expected to continue expanding lending to riskier tiers in 2025 as the macro economy continues to moderate. Originations are expected to increase to approximately 20.8 million over the year.
TransUnion's Q4 2024 Credit Industry Insights Report sees continued signs of stabilization across consumer credit products
A number of the signs of a more stable consumer credit environment that emerged in Q3 2024 have continued over the past quarter across the credit spectrum. Originations saw some measure of YoY growth in the most recent quarter for which data are available for auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans. In credit cards, originations saw a smaller YoY decline than in recent quarters. Delinquencies ticked down across some credit products, although others saw increases. Balances saw increases that were more in line with rates seen prior to 2020 than in the years since.
"In Q4 2024, we saw several signals inching towards a return to more typical patterns within the consumer credit market," said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of research at TransUnion. "Originations ticked up across mortgage and auto and saw more significant growth in unsecured personal loans. In contrast, delinquencies presented more of a mixed bag, seeing increases in auto and mortgage, while at the same time decreasing for unsecured personal loans and credit cards. We will be looking for additional signs of improved performance in these markets moving forward."
To learn more about the latest consumer credit trends, register for the Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report webinar. Read on for more specific insights about credit cards, personal loans, auto loans and mortgages.
Serious consumer-level delinquencies decline year-over-year for first time since 2020 in card
Q4 2024 CIIR Credit Card Summary
More signs of a return to equilibrium were present in the credit card market in Q4 2024. Consumer-level 90+ days past due delinquencies ticked down by 3 basis points YoY to 2.56%, which marked the first annual decrease since 2020. Similarly, account-level delinquencies fell by 4 basis points YoY to 1.46%. This is likely in part due to the continuation of a more conservative origination strategy among lenders. Originations saw a 4.8% YoY decline in Q3 2024. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of declining new account volumes on an annual basis. Despite that, the slowdown in originations is decelerating, with the latest quarter seeing the smallest YoY decline since Q2 2023. Super prime was the only risk tier to see originations growth in Q3 2024, at 1.2% YoY. While originations have slowed, balances continued to grow to record highs, increasing 5.7% to $1.1 trillion. This growth was seen across risk tiers, though the pace of balance growth has returned closer to pre-2020 levels.
Instant Analysis
"Prior predictions had anticipated a moderation in delinquency rates in Q1 2025. The peak was pulled forward by the effect of recalibrated risk strategies and disproportionate originations in prime and above segments. At the same time, there are signs that consumer demand for credit cards may be increasing, as year-over-year originations declines are getting smaller, and some risk tiers, such as super prime, are increasing for the first time in several quarters."
- Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Credit Card Trends
| Credit Card Lending Metric (Bankcard) | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 | ||||||||
| Number of Credit Cards (Bankcards) | 561.5 million | 542.6 million | 518.4 million | 483.7 million | ||||||||
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) | 2.56% | 2.59% | 2.26% | 1.48% | ||||||||
| Total Credit Card Balances | $1.11 Trillion | $1.05 Trillion | $931 billion | $785 billion | ||||||||
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $6,580 | $6,360 | $5,805 | $5,139 | ||||||||
| Number of Consumers Carrying a Balance | 173.1 million | 169.9 million | 166.0 million | 159.0 million | ||||||||
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 19.1 million | 20.1 million | 21.6 million | 19.8 million | ||||||||
| Average New Account Credit Lines* | $5,702 | $5,673 | $5,226 | $4,468 | ||||||||
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
For more credit card industry information, click here for episodes of Extra Credit: A Card and Banking Podcast by TransUnion.
Growth in unsecured personal loan originations leads to record volumes, total balances
Q4 2024 CIIR Unsecured Personal Loan Summary
The positive trend in unsecured personal loans continued for another quarter. Originations for Q3 2024, the most recent quarter of data available, stood at 5.8 million – an increase of 15% year-over-year. This marked the third consecutive quarter of YoY growth and the first quarter of double-digit growth in two years (since Q2 2022). All risk tiers contributed to this expansion, especially the super prime and the below prime tiers, which grew around 17% compared to the prior year. This growth drove records, per Q4 2024 data, in the volume of outstanding loans, in total balances, and in the number of consumers with a balance. Concurrently, average debt per borrower was lower year-over-year in Q4 2024, driven by the prime and below risk tiers. Finally, 60+ DPD borrower-level delinquencies fell year-over-year for Q4 2024 to 3.57% -- 33 basis points below the same quarter last year. The decline was due to risk mix shift as lower risk super prime borrowers continued to grow as a share of total loans, as well as from delinquencies among subprime borrowers which fell 136 basis points year-over-year.
Instant Analysis
"The unsecured personal loan market continued its rebound with originations growing year-over-year across risk tiers, and with strong double-digit growth for most of them. Additionally, borrower-level delinquencies still saw declines year-over-year. This was due to loans being issued across the credit spectrum – especially super prime – and from the subprime delinquency rate continuing to fall even as lending has opened back up to this segment. With the growth to date and optimism from lenders, we expect to see this as the beginning of a period of expansion."
- Liz Pagel, senior vice president of consumer lending at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Unsecured Personal Loan Trends
| Personal Loan Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 |
| Total Balances | $251 billion | $245 billion | $222 billion | $167 billion |
| Number of Unsecured Personal Loans | 29.6 million | 28.1 million | 27.0 million | 22.8 million |
| Number of Consumers with Unsecured Personal Loans | 24.5 million | 23.5 million | 22.5 million | 19.9 million |
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 3.57% | 3.90% | 4.14% | 3.00% |
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $11,607 | $11,773 | $11,116 | $9,622 |
| Average Account Balance | $8,496 | $8,704 | $8,195 | $7,328 |
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 5.8 million | 5.0 million | 5.6 million | 5.1 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional unsecured personal loan industry metrics.
Mortgage delinquencies up year-over-year, yet remain low by historical standards
Q4 2024 CIIR Mortgage Loan Summary
Originations grew 7% YoY in Q3 2024, the most recent quarter for which data are available. This represented the third consecutive quarter in which mortgage originations were either flat or showed growth. Purchase originations continued to drive this growth, accounting for 82% of all originations for the quarter. This compares to a 68% average Q3 purchase share in the five years pre-pandemic. Rate and term refinance originations also played a role in this growth, seeing significant YoY growth of 174% in Q3 2024. This doubled the counts from the prior quarter as homeowners who recently opened a mortgage took advantage of the lowest rates in two years. Account-level delinquencies of 60+ days past due stood at 1.38% for Q4 2024. This remains a trend worth monitoring in coming quarters, particularly as the non-mortgage debt of homeowners continues to grow, up 7% YoY in Q3 2024.
Instant Analysis
"Despite recent quarters of growth, origination volumes continue to be depressed by historical standards. Recent Federal Reserve indications that interest rate reductions may occur more slowly may result in decelerated growth in 2025. Year-over-year increases in delinquency continue to be worth monitoring closely. Yet, even despite a relatively steady series of year-over-year increases in recent quarters, the rate remains extremely low relative to historical standards."
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Mortgage Trends
| Mortgage Lending Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 | |||
| Number of Mortgage Loans | 53.1 million | 52.9 million | 52.6 million | 51.2 million | |||
| Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.29% | 1.03% | 0.89% | 0.75% | |||
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 1.2 million | 1.2 million | 1.5 million | 3.4 million | |||
| Average Loan Amounts of New Mortgage Loans* | $354,943 | $337,977 | $334,339 | $311,743 | |||
| Average Balance per Consumer | $263,923 | $258,167 | $252,212 | $237,539 | |||
| Total Balances of All Mortgage Loans | $12.2 trillion | $12.0 trillion | $11.7 trillion | $10.7 trillion | |||
* Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional mortgage industry metrics. Click here for a Q4 2024 mortgage industry infographic.
Auto originations up year-over-year driven by growth in super prime
Q4 2024 CIIR Auto Loan Summary
Originations were up 1.5% YoY in Q3 2024, although they still lagged 14.8% below the pre-pandemic Q3 2019. Super prime borrower originations led the way, up 8.5% YoY for the quarter. This growth was likely driven in part by increasingly available new inventory and increases in incentives. Other risk tiers saw YoY declines in originations, and when compared to 2019 levels, originations remained down across all risk tiers, with subprime seeing the largest decline (down 27.6%). Likely also driven in part by incentives, leasing continued its rebound from its Q4 2022 low (17%), at 24% of new vehicle registrations in Q4 2024. Consumer-level delinquencies of 60+ days past due continued to tick up in Q4 2024 to 1.67%. This represented an increase of 6 basis points YoY. New vehicle vintages continued to show delinquency performance in Q4 2024 consistent with pre-pandemic periods of 2018/2019. Used vehicle vintage delinquencies were slightly improved as compared to the 2022 cohort but remained worse than 2018/2019.
Instant Analysis
"Super prime was the underlying driver of auto originations growth in Q4 2024, and will likely continue in 2025. Affordability continues to be an issue for the used vehicle market and for below prime consumers, impacted by higher rates and cross-wallet inflation. This is unlikely to materially improve until we have more certainty around used vehicle inventory and interest rates. Delinquencies have now inched past highs previously seen in 2009, primarily driven by increases among below-prime risk tiers, and we will be monitoring them moving forward."
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Auto Loan Trends
| Auto Lending Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 |
| Total Auto Loan Accounts | 80.4 million | 80.4 million | 80.2 million | 81.4 million |
| Prior Quarter Originations1 | 6.4 million | 6.3 million | 6.5 million | 7.2 million |
| Average Monthly Payment NEW2 | $749 | $751 | $729 | $655 |
| Average Monthly Payment USED2 | $523 | $531 | $527 | $494 |
| Average Balance per Consumer | $24,373 | $23,945 | $22,998 | $21,298 |
| Average Amount Financed on New Auto Loans2 | $42,023 | $41,054 | $41,941 | $40,489 |
| Average Amount Financed on Used Auto Loans2 | $26,135 | $26,380 | $27,442 | $27,346 |
| Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.67% | 1.61% | 1.43% | 1.05% |
1Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
2Data from S&P Global MobilityAutoCreditInsight, Q4 2024 data only for months of October & November.
Click here for additional auto industry metrics. Click here for a Q4 2024 auto industry infographic.
For more information about the report, please register for the Q4 2024 Credit Industry Insight Report webinar.
About TransUnion (NYSE:TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
http://www.transunion.com/business
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