Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Home Prices Up 1.7% Year Over Year in January, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

National House Price Growth Sinks to Slowest Pace Since Summer 2023

—Much like the groundhog seeing its shadow, we expect the housing winter to persist in the face of elevated mortgage rates, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—

First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE:FAF), today released its January 2025 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

Chief Economist National HPI Analysis:

"National house price growth slipped to the slowest pace since June 2023 amid elevated mortgage rates and rising inventories," said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. "Elevated mortgage rates reduce house-buying power for potential buyers, holding back demand. At the same time, inventory levels are increasing as some potential sellers list their homes for sale after coming to terms with ‘higher-for-longer' rates and more new-home completions hit the market, further dampening price growth. Much like the groundhog seeing its shadow, we expect this ‘housing winter' to persist if mortgage rates remain high while inventories keep climbing."

Year-Over-Year Price-Tier Data for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metro Area: January 2024 to January 2025

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

"The luxury price tier stands out as a relative outperformer when measuring annual house price growth by tier and market. Prices in the luxury tier grew in 25 of the 28 markets we tracked this month, outpacing price growth in the mid- and starter tier segments," said Fleming. "Luxury home buyers, less affected by the lock-in effect due to their ability to pay in cash, are playing a different game. In December's existing-home sales report, the boom in sales was most distinct at the upper end of the market as sales of homes priced at more than $1 million jumped 35 percent nationally, followed closely by homes in the $750,000-$1 million range, which spiked 33 percent. Existing homeowners are playing ‘housing musical chairs' by selling to each other, a dynamic that is keeping luxury price growth strong in many markets."

HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here.

Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.

Next Release

The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of March 17, 2025.

First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology

The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American's Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American's business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2025 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American Data & Analytics

First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry's largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8.6 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree^®, FraudGuard^®, RegsData^®, First American TaxSource™ and ACI^®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE:FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 135 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $6.1 billion in 2024, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2024, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work^® and Fortune Magazine for the ninth consecutive year, and named one of the 100 Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company for the second consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.

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