JULY HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: OPINIONS ON "BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL" SPLIT WITH 47% OF VOTERS SUPPORTING IT, BUT MOST POLICIES HAVE MAJORITY SUPPORT WITH MANY POPULAR TAX CUTS

45% OF VOTERS SAY INFLATION AND AFFORDABILITY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO THEM PERSONALLY, UP 6 POINTS FROM JUNE

69% OF VOTERS SAY BIDEN'S OPEN BORDER WAS A DELIBERATE POLICY

80% OF VOTERS SUPPORT THE U.S. TAKING ALL ACTIONS NECESSARY TO PREVENT IRAN FROM OBTAINING A NUCLEAR WEAPON

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., July 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW) today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 47% (+1 pt., June 2025), with highest approval among Republican, male, 35-44 y.o., white, and rural voters. Trump's job approval continues to be strongest on immigration (50%) and returning America to its values (50%), and weakest on tariffs and trade policy (42%) and handling inflation (42%). This month's poll also covered public opinion on the economy, immigration, the "Big Beautiful Bill," tariffs, conflicts in the Middle East, and the war in Ukraine. Download the key results here.

"Trump's approval rating has stabilized, but it's a split electorate and the administration will ultimately rise or fall based on his ability to handle inflation," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "But the administration has a lot to work with in terms of gaining support for the 'Big Beautiful Bill' with many individual policy proposals and tax cuts in the bill popular across political parties."

VOTERS WHO STRONGLY DISAPPROVE OF TRUMP TICKS UP BUT DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL RATING REMAINS UNDERWATER

• 38% of voters say they strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as President, up 6 points from February 2025. But the Democratic Party approval rating remains low at 40% (-2 pts., June 2025), while the Republican Party approval rating is at 48% (+1).
• 56% of voters say the economy is on the wrong track.
• 43% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (+4 pts., May 2025). Democrats, Independents, women, 55-64 y.o., Black, and rural voters are more likely than not to say it is getting worse.
• Inflation, immigration, the economy, and healthcare are the top important issues for voters today, with 24% prioritizing healthcare (+6).
• Among key political figures, Trump has the highest favorability at 47% (0 net favorable), followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+5 net favorable). Voters have a more unfavorable view of Elon Musk (-16 net unfavorable) and Chuck Schumer (-15 net unfavorable). Most voters have not heard of or have no opinion of Zohran Mamdani (-8 net unfavorable).

VOTERS SUPPORT MOST OF TRUMP'S POLICIES FROM HIS FIRST SIX MONTHS BUT ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON TRADE DEALS AND FOREIGN CONFLICTS

• The large majority of Trump's policies continue to have majority support, with 85% of voters supporting lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients, and 79% of voters supporting deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. On the other hand, 56% of voters oppose making cost cuts to Medicaid by adding work requirements, and 49% of voters oppose placing tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada.
• 55% of voters support the decision of the Supreme Court to limit the ability of individual federal judges to issue nationwide injunctions, including 33% of Democrats.
• 43% of voters, a plurality, say Trump is doing worse than expected (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 14%; Independents: 47%).
• 49% of voters believe Trump is making good deals on behalf of the country (-3 pts., June 2025).
• 59% of voters say Trump will not solve the Israel-Hamas conflict (-6).

17 OUT OF 21 POLICY PROPOSALS WITHIN THE "BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL" HAVE MAJORITY SUPPORT AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE HEARD OF THE BILL

• 80% of voters have heard of the "Big Beautiful Bill" (+13).
• 44% of voters support the bill (+4), while 44% oppose it (+2). Among those who have heard of the bill, 48% of voters oppose it (+2 net oppose; Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 19%; Independents: 45%).
• Policy proposals within the bill like expanding health savings accounts for farmers (76%), reducing federal spending by $1.3 trillion (69%), increasing the child tax credit (67%), eliminating taxes on tips (66%), boosting military and naval spending (66%), and investing in rural broadband (66%) are the most popular, with majority support across political parties and among those who have heard of the bill.
• Taxing remittances sent abroad (43%) and removing tax and registration for firearm silencers (31%) have the lowest support among the bill's policies.
• 52% of voters say making 2017 tax cuts permanent will increase federal debt (+12 pts., June 2025).

VOTERS NOW SEE THE ECONOMY SOLIDLY IN TRUMP'S HANDS

• 62% of voters say Trump is mostly responsible for the state of the economy today (+7), including a majority across political parties.
• 53% of voters trust the Trump administration and Republicans more than Democrats in Congress to manage the economy (+3).
• 56% of voters say Trump is losing the battle against inflation and that his tariffs are harming the economy.
• 56% of voters say the U.S. is not in a recession, though 59% of Democrats say we are in a recession.
• 46% of voters, a plurality, say recent economic news is mostly negative, though more voters say they've seen mostly positive news stories in the last few weeks (31%; +7 pts., June 2025).

TRUMP IMMIGRATION POLICIES RECEIVE STRONG SUPPORT, WITH TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS ATTRIBUTING OPEN BORDER TO BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

• 60% of voters support the Trump administration's efforts to close the southern border (-3 pts., June 2025; Democrats: 34%; Republicans: 89%; Independents: 55%), and 75% support the administration's efforts to deport criminals who are here illegally, including a majority across political parties.
• 67% of voters say the border was open rather than secure under the Biden administration, and 69% say it was a deliberate policy (Democrats: 48%; Republicans: 88%; Independents: 60%).
• 79% of voters say convicted criminals who are here illegally should be deported after their sentence is over, including a majority across parties.
• 65% of voters oppose allowing cities and towns to block the deportation of convicted criminals (Democrats: 52%; Republicans: 72%; Independents: 69%).
• 59% say more due process is needed to prevent unfair deportations, and 52% of voters say Democrats are fighting for human rights in defending deportations.
• 55% of voters support automatic citizenship for the children of those who are here illegally, and 65% say the Constitution requires birthright citizenship (Democrats: 77%; Republicans: 54%; Independents: 66%).

U.S. STRIKE ON IRAN SEES MAJORITY SUPPORT; VOTERS WANT THE U.S. TO DEFEND ISRAEL IF IRAN RETALIATES

• 78% of voters support Israel over Iran in the Israel-Iran conflict, including a majority across political parties and age groups.
• 58% of voters support the Trump administration's strike on Iran's nuclear sites last month, including a majority of voters over 25 y.o., and 54% say it was a major accomplishment of the U.S. military.
• 51% of voters say the strike did severe damage to Iran's nuclear program.
• 61% of voters support the U.S. defending Israel if Iran retaliates (Democrats: 51%; Republicans: 76%; Independents: 55%), and 86% say Iran should not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
• 61% of voters favor a permanent deal preventing nuclear weapons development over a temporary deal.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS WANT HAMAS TO LEAVE GAZA

• 77% of voters support Israel over Hamas in the Israel-Hamas conflict, and 80% say Hamas must release all remaining hostages without any conditions, including a majority across political parties and age groups.
• 56% of voters say Israel should only make a deal with Hamas if Hamas leaves Gaza (Democrats: 48%; Republicans: 62%: Independents: 56%).
• 53% of voters support Trump's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict (+2).

VOTERS WANT TRUMP TO BE TOUGHER ON PUTIN WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR PROVIDING WEAPONRY TO UKRAINE

• 60% of voters say Trump has not been tough enough with Putin (Democrats: 73%; Republicans: 48%; Independents: 58%).
• 53% of voters say they are not satisfied with Trump's handling of Ukraine-Russia talks (+6 net unsatisfied).
• 65% of voters support continuing to provide weaponry to Ukraine and sanctioning Russia (+3 pts., June 2025), including a majority across political parties.
• 72% of voters say America's relationship with Ukraine is more valuable than with Russia (+4).
• 73% of voters say Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing games and stalling with the West rather than genuinely wanting to end the war in Ukraine.

The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on July 6-8, 2025, among 2,044 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies

The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:

Carrie Hsu

[email protected]  

 

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