Moonfox Analysis | Revenue Increases for Three Consecutive Quarters: What Is Driving the Revival of Growth in the Global Gaming Market?

About us: Aurora Mobile (NASDAQ:JG) established in 2011, is a leading customer engagement and marketing technology service provider in China. Its business includes notification services, marketing growth, development tools, and data products. As its sub-brand, MoonFox Data is a leading expert in data insights and analysis services across all scenarios, aiming to help companies gain market insights and empower precise decision-making.

SHENZHEN, China, Dec. 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- According to data from the Game Publishing Working Committee, China's gaming market achieved actual sales revenue of RMB 91.77 billion between July and September 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 9.0%. Of this, the mobile gaming market generated RMB 65.66 billion, showing a 1.2% increase year-over-year. Mobile games continue to play a significant role in the Chinese gaming market, with the launch of new titles like Naraka: Bladepoint and Dungeon & Fighter: Origin providing a notable boost to domestic sales.

At the same time, the global market remains a key focus for Chinese gaming companies in their expansion efforts. As experienced players in global markets, how have the exports of the gaming industry performed? What are the development trends for leading products?

I. Global Market Returns to Growth: Black Myth: Wukong Reaches Global Audiences and Drives Revenue Growth

Actual Sales Revenue of Chinese Self-developed Games in global Markets (Q3 2023 - Q3 2024)

In terms of market size, Chinese self-developed games have increasingly influenced global markets, with sales revenue continuing to grow. According to data from the Game Publishing Working Committee, actual sales revenue from Chinese self-developed games in the global market reached USD 5.169 billion in Q3 2024, marking a year-over-year growth of 20.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15.4%. Since the end of 2023, revenue from gaming exports has entered a rapid growth phase.

The heightened growth rate in Q3 2024 was partly driven by the booming gaming console market, with Black Myth: Wukong making a significant impact. It is estimated that within the first month of its release on August 20, 2024, the game sold over 20 million copies and generated more than USD 960 million in revenue, setting a new domestic sales record for AAA games.

In China, Black Myth: Wukong significantly raised public awareness of the product, receiving praise from major media outlets such as People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency, which highlighted its positive impact on cultural dissemination. From a cultural tourism perspective, the game features over 27 scenic spots in Shanxi, including Qianfo Temple (also known as "Xiaoxitian"), Yungang Grottoes, and Huayan Temple, which spiked interest in travel routes like "Destiny People - Shanxi Tourism." During Q3, bookings for accommodations in Shanxi's national-level tourism resorts surged by over 200%, with more than 70% of visitors belonging to the '80s and '90s generations.

In the consumer market, on August 16, 2024, Luckin Coffee released a co-branded teaser poster for "Where is the road (deer)?" followed by a product acquisition guide on the 18th. On August 19, the co-branded product "Tengyun Cuisine" was launched. According to MoonFox Data, this product launch significantly increased customer unique visitors (UV), with the UV index surpassing July's average by about 40% on the same day.

Globally, the success of Black Myth: Wukong allowed many international players to gain a deeper understanding of the Journey to the West IP. Viewership of the 1986 TV series Journey to the West on platforms like YouTube surged, and some players began summarizing the storylines and characters in quick-reference formats of "text + illustration," enabling others to familiarize themselves with the game's background in just 30 minutes. Additionally, characters and narratives from Journey to the West began attracting more attention from international players. In the future, more traditional Chinese cultural content could be introduced globally through games and similar media. Black Myth: Wukong has successfully pioneered this path, providing a new reference point for the international expansion of Chinese games.

II. Whiteout Survival Maintains Top Rankings: New Games Continue to Demonstrate Strong Market Performance

While the gaming console market is experiencing accelerated growth, it remains relatively small compared to the overall scale of mobile games, which continue to be the core focus for global gaming exports. In the domestic market, mobile games account for over 70% of the total global sales revenue for self-developed Chinese games, and this share continues to rise year by year. Many new games are steadily increasing their revenue, with gameplay and genre integration emerging as key strategies for customer acquisition in the current mobile game market.

November 2023 - October 2024: Whiteout Survival Top 3 global Revenue Countries

Whiteout Survival consistently ranks at the top for revenue growth. According to MoonFox Data, by October 2024, the game reached 7.064 million downloads, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 9.3%. During the same period, its revenue exceeded USD 108 million, with a month-over-month growth of 8.9%. As a simulation game (SLG), Whiteout Survival leverages China's strengths in the genre. The game builds on traditional 4X heavy strategy gameplay while incorporating lighter mechanics, such as idle and simulation-based elements.

In terms of user acquisition strategy, Whiteout Survival has selected Facebook as its primary platform, utilizing its snow-themed content for marketing. This rich experience in user acquisition has further propelled the game's growth, boosting both revenue and downloads.

Regarding market share, the United States is the game's largest market, accounting for nearly 30% of its revenue. Excluding mainland China, Japan and South Korea are the second and third-largest markets, each contributing around 10%. Due to the high average revenue per user (ARPU) in the U.S., it remains a primary target market for mid-to-heavy games. While South Korea and Japan also have high user willingness to pay, their market players tend to have clearer genre preferences, resulting in relatively smaller shares.

Looking ahead, Whiteout Survival is expected to expand further into markets such as Saudi Arabia, Germany, and other regions in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe, driving additional user growth.

November 2023 - October 2024: PUBG Mobile Top 3 global Revenue Countries

PUBG Mobile has recently experienced slower monthly revenue growth but remains among the top three global games. According to MoonFox Data, by October 2024, the game reached 6.85 million downloads, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5.3%. During the same period, its revenue reached USD 89.34 million, marking a year-over-year growth of 4.7%. As an older title, PUBG Mobile now faces challenges in generating large-scale revenue growth in mature markets. The game has fully developed major population markets like Indonesia and Turkey, and its current download volumes are maintained in the 400K to 600K range. As the market matures, revenue and download growth for top games are expected to slow further. To drive continued revenue growth, battle royale and FPS games will need innovative gameplay or IP collaborations.

Additionally, several new games have entered the Top 30 rankings, with some experiencing exponential revenue growth. For example, Fishing Master, developed by Ark Game, launched internationally in August and achieved nearly USD 5 million in revenue by October. Taiwan, Japan, and the United States were the major contributors to its revenue, with the U.S. market accounting for nearly 30% of total downloads. Given its revenue situation, the game has not yet achieved significant promotion or user monetization in the U.S., indicating potential for further growth in this market.

In general, new games continue to drive steady growth in China's gaming exports, and the global market remains vast, with regions like Latin America and the Middle East/North Africa offering significant development opportunities. However, the gaming industry faces challenges such as gameplay stagnation, fixed genre models, and homogeneous user acquisition strategies. Players' online time is increasingly being diverted by other forms of entertainment, with platforms like TikTok and Kwai emerging as major competitors for gaming products.

In light of these challenges, innovation in gameplay and presentation is crucial. Game companies should focus on emerging areas such as mini-games, cloud gaming, and Web3-based blockchain games, as these trends hold significant potential for driving the next wave of growth in the gaming industry.

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SOURCE Aurora Mobile Ltd