Rental Demand Softened in Late 2025 as Applications Dropped 10%, New TransUnion Analysis Shows
CHICAGO, March 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Property managers faced mounting pressure in the second half of 2025 as tenant applications fell 10% year over year, with the steepest decline hitting during the peak summer moving season.
Application declines were concentrated primarily in the western and southwestern states, with only a few exceptions in the eastern U.S. Maine experienced the steepest drop nationwide, with applications falling 25%, according to a new TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) analysis presented at its Property Management Summit, held March 19-20.
The study analyzed more than 2,400 same-store properties that screened applications in both 2024 and 2025 across 47 states. The analysis included a balanced mix of property types, a wide range of rent levels and applications across all score tiers. Full details of the findings are available in the blog Rental Applications Are Down: How to Keep Properties Full Without Increasing Eviction Risk.
"There was a confluence of factors affecting the rental market last year," said Maitri Johnson, senior vice president and head of tenant and employment screening at TransUnion. "New apartment construction reached an all-time high, giving renters more options. At the same time, renters were less willing to move due to ongoing economic uncertainty."
In response, property managers lowered their decision points by an average of 6 points. Decision points—typically based on credit scores or other credit-based risk scores—determine whether an applicant is accepted. While this strategy helped maintain occupancy, it also meant property managers potentially took on greater tenant risk.
Balancing occupancy and risk
The analysis identified several ways property managers can find strong tenants even within a smaller applicant pool. The most effective step is to use a rental-specific risk scoring model, such as TransUnion's TruVision™ Resident Score, rather than relying solely on a traditional credit risk score.
"A traditional credit score shows a person's likelihood of repaying debts, but rent is typically prioritized over other financial obligations," said Johnson. "When property managers base decisions solely on traditional credit scores, they may miss that distinction. Rental-specific scoring models help provide a clearer picture of how likely a tenant is to pay rent on time and the potential overall risk they present."
Property managers also frequently evaluate a renter's income-to-rent ratio, with 30% of income traditionally considered ideal. However, rent growth has far outpaced income growth, making that benchmark increasingly difficult to meet. The analysis found that applicants with higher income-to-rent ratios can still be strong tenants if they maintain a solid credit or resident score, as they tend to manage financial obligations responsibly.
For more information about tenant screening and how to achieve a competitive advantage in the rental market, click here.
Read the full rental applications analysis findings here.
About TransUnion (NYSE:TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world. http://www.transunion.com/business
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