RXO's Latest Curve Freight Market Forecast Shows Third-Consecutive Quarter of Decelerating Spot Rate Growth
- In the third quarter, while truckload freight rates continued to rise year-over-year, the rate of growth decelerated from the second quarter of 2025
- Spot rates will likely continue to rise
Today, RXO (NYSE:RXO), a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast.
The Q4 Curve update, which recaps third-quarter performance, covers macroeconomic indicators and trends driving the truckload market, and provides a fourth-quarter freight market forecast, indicates a sustained year-over-year increase in truckload rates in the third quarter. The rate of this growth decelerated when compared to the second quarter, however, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration.
Highlights from the report include:
- Spot rates increased 1.8% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, down from the 6.5% reading in the second quarter of 2025 and the 9.1% reading in the first quarter of 2025.
- Peak season shipping could drive some incremental rate volatility, however, it's likely that freight volumes will remain muted.
- Carriers are under immense cost pressure, and capacity continues to leave the market, which may lead to freight rate volatility when demand recovers.
"The trends we've been seeing for much of the past two years continued in the third quarter, including muted freight volumes, waning carrier capacity, and low spot rates that haven't been able to sustain any significant upward momentum," said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO.
Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said, "The near-term demand picture is consistent with our expectations for a muted peak season. Shippers are still contending with a tremendous amount of uncertainty, including weak consumer demand and lower consumption of goods. On the supply side, carriers are still under significant cost pressure from prolonged low rates, and recent regulations and enforcement are causing an acceleration in capacity exits. The capacity environment is more fragile than at any point over the past two years, and a modest spike in demand and/or the continuation of capacity exits could lead to rate volatility in 2026."
To read the full fourth-quarter Curve report, including corresponding charts and data visualization, visit https://rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide/.
The Curve exemplifies RXO's commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market.
About RXO
RXO (NYSE:RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit RXO.com for more information and connect with RXO on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X and YouTube.
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