SAF investor expects “100x growth” in next decade
April 24, 2025
Mark Dorenkamp and Mihir Dange
MIHIR DANGE:
I'm Mahir Dange, CEO of XCF Global.
MARK DORENKAMP:
Mahir, let's start with an overview of XCF Global — tell us about the business.
MIHIR DANGE:
Thanks for having me on. XCF Global is a holding company. That holding company has Devco assets in sustainable aviation fuel. Currently, our first facility is in Reno, Nevada, and then we have subsequent facilities — one adjacent to the existing
site, one in Fort Myers, Florida, and another one in North Carolina.
MARK DORENKAMP:
What has this process of ramping up SAF production been like from your perspective?
MIHIR DANGE:
SAF is a new space, but it is developing and starting to become a very important piece of how the world decarbonizes using aviation. In terms of SAF and bringing SAF facilities on, I think we're kind of in the early stages — almost the early
innings of what's happening. And it takes time. These facilities, they take a lot of engineering and require a lot of manpower to bring them up and online. And it's... they take about three years to build. So, it's an interesting time, as there's
a tremendous amount of need and there is a lot of build time that's required to get them up and operational.
MARK DORENKAMP:
What is your message to farmers who are looking at the market potential of SAF — they grow corn or soybeans, various feedstocks that could be used in the production of sustainable aviation fuel. What is your message to them right now?
MIHIR DANGE:
I think the message right now is: sustainable aviation fuel, which is now being branded as synthetic aviation fuel in the new administration, is a very... like I mentioned before, is a very important part of decarbonizing the aviation industry.
There is going to be a strong push to grow synthetic aviation fuel sites on a year-on-year basis. Currently, we're expecting about 100x growth over the next 10 years.
One of the main drivers around that growth is the farm industry — that is supporting the most viable way to bring these facilities online through feedstock. And typically, it's through corn and soybean — soybeans — which are the driving force.
So I think for the industry, I think it requires a little bit of patience, but I do think that the farmers that are forward on figuring out economies of scale, figuring out how to be close to rail, also potentially figuring out how to lower their
CI scores — as those are going to be the main driving forces as we go forward.
We know that it's going to be the most — one of the most predominant feedstocks, and whether it's used in renewable diesel or synthetic aviation fuel, the cost is going to be a big driver of how we continue to use these products.
MARK DORENKAMP:
You talked before about some of the complexity and cost of SAF production facility. And as you think about the current biofuels industry — ethanol plants, biodiesel plants — those types of operations, I would assume that there are some
similarities to what we’ll see SAF production look like. But obviously, there’s going to be some differences. What kind of light can you shed on that?
MIHIR DANGE:
I'm sorry, could you repeat the question if you don't mind?
MARK DORENKAMP:
Sure — as far as the way that SAF is being produced and what those plants... how they operate, the technology involved — does it parallel current ethanol production or biodiesel production very much? Or are there some real key differences there
that would necessitate just kind of building from scratch this SAF production model?
MIHIR DANGE:
Yeah, there are differences in the technology and there are differences on how you take — which is the core product — a corn or soybean oil and convert it into its final product. So, for synthetic aviation fuel in particular, in our facility, we
have the ability to pull in used cooking oil, animal fats, animal tallows, soybean oil, distillers corn oil. That is a different type of methodology than you using ethanol to convert it into synthetic aviation fuel.
I think that the main drivers around it are cost and carbon intensity. So while the technology is different, I think what you're going to find is over the next decade the need to rely on farmers and having a cost-competitive product, having a
carbon – achieving as close to carbon neutrality as possible — and we know that that's very difficult, considering some of the processes that are there today — but the lower, the better we achieve those carbon intensity scores on a cost basis,
the better you're going to see the advancement of this entire ecosystem.
And it starts with feedstock. It starts with the farmers and working at the... working at the farm level, moving it all the way up the chain — up the supply chain to delivery, to produce... production, to delivery, to now input at the
infrastructure level for SAF facilities, and then making that byproduct — or the product and the byproduct — into the wing of the plane. But it really starts at the farmer level in order for us to achieve that.
MARK DORENKAMP:
The milestone that was recently hit with New Rise Renewables capturing a major order — how significant is that in getting this market off the ground, so to speak? And what are some other potential milestones going forward to be on the lookout
for?
MIHIR DANGE:
Well, I think at the XCF level, we're very proud of bringing New Rise Renewables up and online. It is a major milestone, as we're a... a handful of — there are only a handful of SAF projects that are actually up and running today.
I think the things that we should look at are what is happening overall in the industry. And I think the things that we're finding are: in Europe, we're starting to see mandates; internationally now in other parts of the world, we're starting
to see mandates — or potentially Japan, Australia, China has targets, India — and it's starting to become a global product.
And as this becomes a global product, what can we evaluate in what's happening in the trend of that product, right? And those trends I kind of mentioned before are on carbon intensity. What is the trend around mandates? What is the trend
around technology? What is the technology path that is prevalent today — will it be the prevalent source going tomorrow?
And I think when you start incorporating all of those little features, you start getting a clearer roadmap of what's happening in the industry.
I think the second thing that we also want to look at is: where is the feedstock that farmers are producing today and why are they relevant? And where can those feedstocks be delivered to?
With the new administration, I think something that we're noticing is that there is a much stronger appetite for domestic feedstocks — domestic corn and soybean oil in particular — to meet the demands of this industry.
MARK DORENKAMP:
Anything else that you want to be sure we cover?
MIHIR DANGE:
I think we should cover what's happening a little bit with tariffs. I think the tariff-based – the tariff-based ecosystem that this new administration is pushing forward — I think really plays quite nicely into pushing domestic SAF and renewable
energy to the next level.
Let me kind of elaborate on that. So, as we put tariffs in place, domestically — domestic producers of synthetic aviation fuel are going to push for domestic corn and domestic soybeans because they really focus on lower cost growth for the
industry.
For a company like ourselves, where we can take in animal tallow and, in particular, we can take in used cooking oil — that used cooking oil now starts to become more expensive because of tariffs.
So, I do think that there is the potential for a better ecosystem that works here in the United States.
I think the second thing that we should probably look at is what's happening with IRA credits. The IRA credits are meant to stimulate production here in the United States, and as long as those IRA credits continue to exist, it will make the
most amount of sense to produce domestically, take feedstock in domestically, and ship that product potentially into mandated countries.
So, I think that's kind of one angle that we're looking at today — that maybe some people are not.
MARK DORENKAMP:
Yeah, an interesting point on tariffs. And then I'm glad you brought up the tax credits, because amongst farm groups right now, there's some frustration with sort of a lack of clear guidance on the 45Z tax credit in particular — and what
qualifies for that. Has that been something that you followed very closely? And do you expect further clarification to come with the current administration?
MIHIR DANGE:
Yes, so, great question. The 45Z was established from the IRA. It is something that is — that the credit incentives that are driven from the low carbon transportation of it is really important for companies like ourselves.
I do know that there's a lot of frustration around it. We have a lot of frustration around it. But we do think that by 2026, it's going to be resolved in their – how they want to take — how their view is going to take on it.
In particular, we do think though in the current administration there is still a strong focus around biofuels. And because there is still a strong focus around biofuels, there is a strong appetite to support the farmers in the Midwest and in
particular support the 45Z.
Now, I've spent some time down in Washington, Washington DC, and there is a very bipartisan view around this part of the code. So, we feel confident that 45Z will continue to exist and that they will provide strong guidance.
But I think the main thing that we're seeing is: there is a lot of support right now for farmers — especially around corn ethanol and soybeans.