S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in June 2025
- The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite continue to display growth with 1.9%, 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively.
- Housing wealth erodes in real terms for second consecutive month, with home price gains of 1.9% trailing consumer inflation of 2.7%.
- Regional leadership flips as New York (7.0%) and Chicago (6.1%) outpace former pandemic darlings Tampa (-2.4%) and Phoenix (-0.1%).
NEW YORK, Aug. 26, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the June 2025 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, formerly known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.
More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-cotality-case-shiller.
ANALYSIS
"June's results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "What makes this deceleration particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: The modest 1.9% annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices (-0.6%) that were more than offset by a 2.5% surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025.
"The geographic divergence has become the story's defining characteristic. New York's 7.0% annual gain stands as a stark outlier, leading all markets by a wide margin, followed by Chicago (6.1%) and Cleveland (4.5%). This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix (-0.1%), Tampa (-2.4%), and Dallas (-1.0%). Tampa's decline marks the worst performance among all tracked metros, while several Western markets including San Diego (-0.6%) and San Francisco (-2.0%) have joined the negative column—a remarkable transformation from their earlier boom years.
"For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation," Godec observed. "From June 2024 to June 2025, the Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7%, substantially outpacing the 1.9% gain in national home prices. This reversal is historically significant: During the pandemic surge, home values were climbing at double-digit annual rates that far exceeded inflation, building substantial real wealth for homeowners. Now, American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market's new equilibrium.
"The monthly patterns in June reveal a market caught between seasonal forces and underlying weakness. While 13 of 20 metros posted monthly gains before seasonal adjustment, the national index managed just 0.1% growth. After seasonal adjustment, all three headline composites declined, with the National Index falling 0.3%, suggesting that underlying housing demand remains weak despite normal seasonal buying patterns.
"Looking ahead, this housing cycle's maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years," Godec concluded. "The regional rotation from Sun Belt to traditional industrial centers likely reflects more sustainable fundamentals—employment growth, relative affordability, and demographic shifts that favor established metros over speculative markets. While this represents a loss of the extraordinary gains homeowners enjoyed from 2020-2022, it may signal a healthier long-term trajectory where housing appreciation aligns more closely with broader economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess."
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain for June, down from a 2.3% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite increased 2.6%, down from a 3.4% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 2.1%, down from a 2.8% increase in the previous month.
New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.0% increase in June, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.1% and 4.5%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.4%.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a slight upward trend, rising 0.1%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1% and -0.04%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index posted a -0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite Index fell -0.3%.
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | ||||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 133.99 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 331.52 | 147.4 % | 79.6 % |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 342.90 | 155.8 % | 66.0 % |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 362.65 | 147.6 % | 60.3 % |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for June 2025. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
June 2025 | June/May | May/April | 1-Year | |
Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
Atlanta | 252.09 | 0.0 % | 0.5 % | 0.9 % |
Boston | 354.03 | 0.3 % | 1.3 % | 4.2 % |
Charlotte | 288.35 | 0.5 % | 1.1 % | 2.5 % |
Chicago | 222.32 | 1.0 % | 1.2 % | 6.1 % |
Cleveland | 202.13 | 0.4 % | 1.4 % | 4.5 % |
Dallas | 299.12 | 0.1 % | 0.3 % | -1.0 % |
Denver | 321.62 | -0.3 % | 0.1 % | -0.6 % |
Detroit | 198.64 | 0.6 % | 1.1 % | 4.3 % |
Las Vegas | 305.78 | 0.0 % | 0.4 % | 2.4 % |
Los Angeles | 447.16 | -0.4 % | -0.5 % | 0.1 % |
Miami | 441.62 | -0.2 % | -0.1 % | -0.2 % |
Minneapolis | 248.83 | 0.7 % | 1.3 % | 2.5 % |
New York | 335.27 | 0.4 % | 1.1 % | 7.0 % |
Phoenix | 329.03 | -0.5 % | 0.1 % | -0.1 % |
Portland | 335.64 | -0.2 % | 0.9 % | 1.0 % |
San Diego | 446.25 | -0.3 % | 0.1 % | -0.6 % |
San Francisco | 359.71 | -1.0 % | 0.0 % | -2.0 % |
Seattle | 401.00 | -0.4 % | 0.0 % | 0.9 % |
Tampa | 378.94 | 0.3 % | 0.5 % | -2.4 % |
Washington | 338.33 | -0.5 % | 0.2 % | 2.2 % |
Composite-10 | 362.65 | -0.1 % | 0.4 % | 2.6 % |
Composite-20 | 342.90 | 0.0 % | 0.4 % | 2.1 % |
U.S. National | 331.52 | 0.1 % | 0.5 % | 1.9 % |
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||
Data through June 2025 | ||||
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
June/May Change (%) | May/April Change (%) | |||
Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA |
Atlanta | 0.0 % | -0.5 % | 0.5 % | -0.2 % |
Boston | 0.3 % | 0.0 % | 1.3 % | 0.3 % |
Charlotte | 0.5 % | 0.0 % | 1.1 % | 0.2 % |
Chicago | 1.0 % | 0.2 % | 1.2 % | 0.0 % |
Cleveland | 0.4 % | 0.0 % | 1.4 % | 0.0 % |
Dallas | 0.1 % | -0.5 % | 0.3 % | -0.7 % |
Denver | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | 0.1 % | -0.6 % |
Detroit | 0.6 % | 0.0 % | 1.1 % | 0.1 % |
Las Vegas | 0.0 % | -0.6 % | 0.4 % | -0.5 % |
Los Angeles | -0.4 % | -0.4 % | -0.5 % | -0.9 % |
Miami | -0.2 % | -0.8 % | -0.1 % | -0.8 % |
Minneapolis | 0.7 % | 0.1 % | 1.3 % | 0.0 % |
New York | 0.4 % | 0.2 % | 1.1 % | 0.3 % |
Phoenix | -0.5 % | -1.2 % | 0.1 % | -0.8 % |
Portland | -0.2 % | -0.4 % | 0.9 % | 0.1 % |
San Diego | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | 0.1 % | -0.5 % |
San Francisco | -1.0 % | -0.8 % | 0.0 % | -0.8 % |
Seattle | -0.4 % | -0.2 % | 0.0 % | -0.8 % |
Tampa | 0.3 % | -0.1 % | 0.5 % | -0.4 % |
Washington | -0.5 % | -0.6 % | 0.2 % | -0.6 % |
Composite-10 | -0.1 % | -0.1 % | 0.4 % | -0.3 % |
Composite-20 | 0.0 % | -0.3 % | 0.4 % | -0.3 % |
U.S. National | 0.1 % | -0.3 % | 0.5 % | -0.2 % |
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||
Data through June 2025 | ||||
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S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and Cotality, Inc.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices are produced by Cotality, Inc. In addition to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, Cotality also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through Cotality.
Case-Shiller® and Cotality® are trademarks of Cotality Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("Cotality") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by Cotality or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by Cotality, and neither Cotality nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.
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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices