TransUnion 2026 Outlook: Moderate Credit Card Balance Growth and Stable Delinquency Rates Signal Consumer Perseverance
CHICAGO, Dec. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) today released its 2026 Consumer Credit Forecast, projecting credit card balances to grow 2.3% year over year (YoY)—the smallest annual increase since 2013, excluding 2020 when pandemic relief programs caused a decline. This moderation reflects consumers navigating persistent economic uncertainty as lenders maintain disciplined underwriting standards.
Credit card balances are expected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2026, up from $1.16 trillion in 2025. This increase contrasts sharply with the double-digit growth of 2022 and 2023, but reflects the more modest pace of growth seen in more recent years. Lenders are cautiously expanding credit access for riskier consumer segments while prioritizing account management strategies to mitigate delinquency risk.
"After elevated credit card balance growth over the last 5 years, credit card balance growth is expected to moderate driven by both measured spend growth by consumers and prudent credit extension by lenders," said Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion. "While economic pressures remain, this trend suggests households are managing credit more responsibly—a favorable sign as we move into 2026."
Credit card delinquency rates are forecast to remain virtually flat, with the percentage of consumers 90 or more days past due (90+ DPD) inching up by just one basis point to 2.57%. This stability reflects tighter underwriting and proactive risk management by card issuers—even as consumers contend with inflationary pressures and fluctuating interest rates.
Credit Card Forecast: Small Balance Growth, Stable Delinquencies
| Metric/Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025* | 2026* |
| Year-End Balances ($B) | $847 | $740 | $785 | $931 | $1,048 | $1,108 | $1,157 | $1,183 |
| YoY % Change | 5.7% | -12.5% | 6.1% | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Year-End 90+ DPD DQ Rate | 2.19% | 1.30% | 1.48% | 2.26% | 2.59% | 2.56% | 2.56% | 2.57% |
*Forecasted
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
The forecast reflects a complex backdrop: inflation remains above target at 2.45%, and unemployment is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% by late 2026, which could put strain on household budgets for certain borrowers. At the same time, multiple anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts over the next year should ease borrowing costs and provide some relief to consumers.
Delinquency Trends Across Other Credit Products
- Auto Loans: Accounts 60+ DPD are expected to reach 1.54% (+3 bps YoY), marking the fifth straight year of higher delinquencies—though each increase has become progressively smaller.
- Mortgages: Accounts 60+ DPD are projected to hit 1.65% (+11 bps YoY) in December 2026, influenced by a modest rise in unemployment.
- Unsecured Personal Loans: Consumers 60+ DPD are forecast at 3.75% (+1 bps YoY), driven partly by macroeconomic pressures and increased non-prime originations.
"Delinquency rates across most credit products are expected to see slight increases, which is not surprising given the unsettled economic environment," said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. "The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, and consumers appear to be managing their finances reasonably well. We'll continue to monitor these trends closely to determine whether this signals a broader improvement in consumer credit health."
Serious Delinquency Rates For Other Products Are Expected to See Only Slight Increases in 2026
| Credit Product/ Year-End DQ Rate | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025* | 2026* |
| Auto Loans 60+ DPD | 1.29% | 0.95% | 0.92% | 1.26% | 1.42% | 1.47% | 1.51% | 1.54% |
| Mortgage 60+ DPD | 1.63% | 1.03% | 0.82% | 0.96% | 1.11% | 1.39% | 1.54% | 1.65% |
| Unsecured Personal Loans 60+ DPD | 3.48% | 2.70% | 3.00% | 4.14% | 3.90% | 3.57% | 3.74% | 3.75% |
*Forecasted
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
"The smallest year-over-year growth in credit card balances in more than a decade, combined with stable delinquency rates, underscores the relative strength and resilience of consumer credit behavior—even amid broader economic uncertainty," said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. "For lenders, these trends present an opportunity to build deeper relationships with responsible borrowers while continuing to prioritize prudent risk management."
TransUnion's forecasts are based on various economic assumptions, such as expected consumer spending, disposable personal income, home prices, inflation, interest rates, real GDP growth rates and unemployment rates, among other metrics. The forecasts could change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy. Better-than-expected improvements in the economy, such as increases in GDP and disposable income, could also impact these forecasts.
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For tips on how factors like utilization rate and payment history impact credit, visit TransUnion's blog on responsible credit card use.
About TransUnion (NYSE:TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
http://www.transunion.com/business
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