TransUnion Report Reveals Diverging Credit Risk Trends Among U.S. Consumers
CHICAGO, Nov. 03, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Recent patterns in consumer credit risk suggest a growing divide among U.S. consumers, as some demonstrate heightened financial resilience while others face mounting challenges. These insights come from TransUnion's (NYSE:TRU) newly released Q3 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), which also reveals how these shifts are influencing lending behaviors across key credit markets.
Recent trends in consumer credit risk distribution show a steady increase in the percentage of individuals classified in the lowest risk super prime credit risk tier, rising from 37.1% in Q3 2019 to 40.9% in Q3 2025. This increase in the share of super prime borrowers occurred as the overall credit market expanded, with the total number of super prime borrowers now approximately 16 million higher than in 2019. This upward movement reflects continued financial stability among top-tier consumers. At the same time, the subprime segment has gradually returned to pre-pandemic levels after notable declines in 2020 and 2021, when many consumers were able to pay down debt and reduce credit account delinquencies during a period of reduced expenses and pandemic-related relief programs.
| Super Prime Consumer Share Continues to Rise as Subprime Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels | |||||||
| Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2021 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2024 | Q3 2025 | |
| Super prime | 37.1% | 38.9% | 38.4% | 38.3% | 39.3% | 40.3% | 40.9% |
| Prime plus | 17.6% | 17.9% | 19.2% | 18.9% | 18.0% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| Prime | 17.4% | 17.5% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 15.6% |
| Near prime | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Subprime | 14.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 14.4% |
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
"We are seeing a divergence in consumer credit risk, with more individuals moving toward either end of the credit risk spectrum," said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. "While super prime has steadily grown since the pandemic, subprime has returned to pre-pandemic levels—leaving the middle tiers increasingly thinner. This shift suggests that while many consumers are navigating the current economic climate well, others may be facing financial strain."
The movement toward super prime and subprime tiers is clearly reflected in recent activity across the credit card and auto lending markets. Year-over-year growth in new account originations and total balances was strongest in these two tiers, far outpacing all others. This divergence in credit behavior highlights evolving consumer dynamics and underscores the importance of tailored risk strategies across the credit spectrum.
| Credit Card and Auto Originations and Total Outstanding Balances Have Seen Greater YoY Growth on the Two Ends of the Risk Spectrum | ||||
| YoY% Change by Risk Tier | Credit Card | Auto | ||
| Originations* | Total Balances | Originations* | Total Balances | |
| Super prime | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| Prime plus | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | -2.5% |
| Prime | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -2.7% |
| Near prime | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Subprime | 21.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
"As consumers increasingly shift toward the extremes of the credit risk spectrum, it's no surprise we're seeing the sharpest growth in credit card and auto activity within those tiers," said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. "To navigate these changes effectively, lenders should leverage advanced tools—like access to trended data—to better assess evolving risk profiles."
To learn more about the latest consumer credit trends, register for the Q3 2025 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report webinar. Read on for more specific insights about credit cards, personal loans, auto loans and mortgages.
Credit card market sees consistency, expansion, and healthier risk signals
Q3 2025 CIIR Credit Card Summary
- Credit card origination volumes—reported one quarter in arrears— increased for the third consecutive quarter, rising 9% YoY to 20.5 million in Q2 2025. This represented the largest YoY increase in two years. This expansion was driven by growth in the super prime and subprime segments.
- Average new account credit lines decreased by 1.6% YoY. Lower credit lines were seen across all risk tiers, led by subprime, which saw new lines 5.0% lower YoY.
- Consumer-level delinquencies saw another YoY decline, with 90+ DPD rates falling to 2.37%, down 7 basis points YoY. Delinquency improvements were also seen when examining 30+ DPD and 60+ DPD rates, pointing to an overall strengthening of consumer credit health and more responsible payment behavior, along with better-quality originations driven by adjustments in underwriting standards.
Instant Analysis
"The credit card industry continued its steady expansion in Q3 2025, with origination volumes from Q2 rising for the third consecutive quarter, driven by consistent growth in both super prime and subprime segments. Total new account credit lines also increased, while lenders managed risk through smaller credit limits. Encouragingly, delinquency rates continued to improve, signaling healthier consumer credit behavior and reinforcing the impact of more disciplined and consistent lending practices."
- Paul Siegfried, senior vice president, credit card business leader at TransUnion
| Q3 2025 Credit Card Trends | ||||
| Credit Card Lending Metric (Bankcard) | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 |
| Number of Credit Cards (Bankcards) | 574.4 million | 554.5 million | 537.9 million | 510.9 million |
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) | 2.37% | 2.43% | 2.34% | 1.94% |
| Total Credit Card Balances | $1.11 Trillion | $1.06 Trillion | $995 billion | $866 billion |
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $6,523 | $6,380 | $6,088 | $5,474 |
| Number of Consumers Carrying a Balance | 174.8 million | 171.4 million | 168.6 million | 163.9 million |
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 20.4 million | 18.8 million | 20.5 million | 21.3 million |
| Average New Account Credit Lines* | $5,797 | $5,891 | $5,777 | $5,021 |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
For more credit card industry information, click here for episodes of Extra Credit: A Card and Banking Podcast by TransUnion. Click here for a credit card industry infographic.
Unsecured personal loans see record balances and resilient credit performance
Q3 2025 CIIR Unsecured Personal Loan Summary
- Unsecured personal loan originations reached 6.9 million in Q2 2025, marking a 26% year-over-year increase. Growth was strongest among traditionally riskier tiers, with subprime originations up 35% and near prime up 26%. Fintechs accounted for over 40% of these new loans, rebounding after a dip in the previous quarter.
- Balances continued their steady climb, hitting a record $269 billion in Q3 2025—an 8% YoY increase and the largest since Q1 2024. All risk tiers saw growth, led by super prime at 11%. Fintechs now hold more than half of total balances, followed by banks at 21%.
- Delinquency rates remained relatively stable year-over-year in Q3 2025, with the 60+ DPD rate inching up to 3.52%, compared to 3.50% in Q3 2024. Of note was the subprime segment, where delinquency declined to 11.4% from 11.9% a year earlier, while other risk tiers held steady. This modest shift suggests some early signs of improvement in credit performance among higher-risk borrowers.
Instant Analysis
"Sustained growth in the unsecured personal loan saw 26% year-over-year originations growth and balances reaching a record $269 billion. This growth was led by fintechs, as they continued gaining share in the super prime segment, and as growth picked up significantly in non-prime credit tiers. More precise risk strategies have enabled this confidence, as evidenced by serious delinquency growing only two basis points year-over-year as lending volumes grow and buy boxes open."
- Josh Turnbull, senior vice president, consumer lending business leader at TransUnion
| Q3 2025 Unsecured Personal Loan Trends | ||||
| Personal Loan Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 |
| Total Balances | $269 billion | $249 billion | $241 billion | $210 billion |
| Number of Unsecured Personal Loans | 31.8 million | 29.3 million | 27.8 million | 26.4 million |
| Number of Consumers with Unsecured Personal Loans | 25.9 million | 24.2 million | 23.2 million | 22.0 million |
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 3.52% | 3.50% | 3.75% | 3.89% |
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $11,724 | $11,652 | $11,692 | $10,749 |
| Average Account Balance | $8,457 | $8,514 | $8,644 | $7,946 |
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 6.9 million | 5.4 million | 5.1 million | 6.0 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional unsecured personal loan industry metrics.
Gen Z gains ground in home equity as mortgage activity ticks up
Q3 2025 CIIR Mortgage Loan Summary
- Mortgage originations ticked up 8.8% year-over-year in Q2 2025. This growth was mainly driven by growth in rate and term refi, up 101% YoY and cash-out refinances increasing 23% over the same period.
- Mortgage delinquencies edged up in Q3 2025, with the consumer-level 60+ DPD rate increasing to 1.36%, up from 1.24% one year prior. FHA loans continued to make up the largest share of these delinquencies, although VA loans saw the greatest YoY increase, up 35% YoY.
- The home equity market saw YoY growth for the fifth consecutive quarter, rising 14% in Q2 2025. While Gen X and Baby Boomers still account for the highest shares of home equity originations, Gen Z saw the most significant YoY growth, up 28% and 23% for HELOCs and HELOANs respectively.
Instant Analysis
"The housing finance landscape continues to evolve, shaped by shifting demographics and an increasingly dynamic monetary policy environment. As interest rates begin to ease, mortgage activity is showing signs of recovery, supported by improving affordability conditions. We remain closely attuned to the potential for further rate reductions should the Federal Reserve proceed with additional cuts. At the same time, rising delinquency rates—particularly within certain borrower segments—underscore the importance of maintaining a vigilant and proactive approach to risk monitoring and portfolio management."
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
| Q3 2025 Mortgage Trends | ||||
| Mortgage Lending Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 |
| Number of Mortgage Loans | 54.5 million | 54.1 million | 52.4 million | 52.2 million |
| Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.36% | 1.24% | 0.95% | 0.82% |
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 1.3 million | 1.2 million | 1.2 million | 1.9 million |
| Average Loan Amounts of New Mortgage Loans* | $371,467 | $347,692 | $343,751 | $342,778 |
| Average Balance per Consumer | $268,060 | $260,900 | $256,858 | $249,326 |
| Total Balances of All Mortgage Loans | $12.7 trillion | $12.3 trillion | $11.8 trillion | $11.5 trillion |
* Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Auto lending rebounds, but affordability and risk remain in focus
Q3 2025 CIIR Auto Loan Summary
- Auto loan originations rose 5.2% YoY to 6.7 million in Q3 2025, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts and stable inventories. Affordability challenges, tariffs, and rising ownership costs remain headwinds. Growth was led by super prime (+8.4%) and subprime (+8.8%), with expansion in these risk tiers contributing to overall market gains.
- Following a period of stabilization in 2023 and 2024, average monthly payments for new vehicles rose 3.0% YoY to $769 in Q3 2025, while used vehicle payments increased 3.3% to $538. Despite rising costs, the mix of vehicles financed in Q2 2025—43% new and 57% used—closely mirrors pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
- The percentage of accounts 60+ days past due rose to 1.45% in Q3 2025, up four basis points year-over-year, although the pace of growth has slowed. Notably, delinquency rates among 2024 vintages remain elevated compared to 2019, especially within prime and below-prime risk tiers, signaling continued pressure on credit performance.
Instant Analysis
"Auto lending continued to expand in Q3 2025, supported by rate cuts and stable inventories, even as affordability and ownership costs remain key challenges. Consumer financing behavior is trending back toward pre-pandemic norms, with a balanced mix of new and used vehicle loans despite rising monthly payments. With the expiration of the EV tax credit in September 2025, we'll be closely watching for a potential uptick in EV registrations in the prior months leading up to it, while also monitoring elevated delinquency rates among newer vintages for signs of credit performance pressure."
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
| Q3 2025 Auto Loan Trends | ||||
| Auto Lending Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | Q3 2022 |
| Total Auto Loan Accounts | 80.3 million | 80.2 million | 80.2 million | 80.4 million |
| Prior Quarter Originations1 | 6.4 million | 6.0 million | 6.0 million | 6.7 million |
| Average Monthly Payment NEW2 | $769 | $747 | $742 | $707 |
| Average Monthly Payment USED2 | $538 | $521 | $533 | $528 |
| Average Balance per Consumer | $24,602 | $24,199 | $23,501 | $22,178 |
| Average Amount Financed on New Auto Loans2 | $43,718 | $41,616 | $40,914 | $41,843 |
| Average Amount Financed on Used Auto Loans2 | $27,037 | $25,891 | $26,794 | $28,410 |
| Account-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.45% | 1.44% | 1.34% | 1.07% |
1Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
2Data from S&P Global MobilityAutoCreditInsight, Q3 2025 data only for months of July & August.
For more information about the report, please register for the Q3 2025 Credit Industry Insight Report webinar.
About TransUnion (NYSE:TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
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