U.S. MANUFACTURING PICKED UP IN JANUARY DRIVEN BY GROWING DEMAND: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX

• The world's supply chains are operating at full capacity, with the notable exception of Europe, which remains in a protracted industrial recession.
• Asia's manufacturing growth was reported by major exporters, led by South Korea, China, and India.
• Despite the possibility of tariffs and significant uncertainty surrounding their implementation, global manufacturers are not stockpiling inventories.

CLARK, N.J., Feb. 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — posted -0.21 at the start of the year. This indicates that global supply chains are effectively at full capacity, signaled when the index hits 0.

"January's rise in manufacturers' procurement across APAC and the U.S. signals steady growth ahead in Q1," said John Piatek, GEP's vice president of consulting. "Globally, companies are largely taking a wait-and-see approach to tariffs rather than absorbing the immediate cost of increasing buffer inventories. However, many Western firms are accelerating China-plus-one investments to diversify and near-shore manufacturing, assembly, and distribution. European manufacturers are especially vulnerable, as the sector has been contracting for nearly two years with no turnaround in sight. In the U.S., where manufacturing represents just 12% of GDP, the bigger concern for business is the potential revenue losses in China because of trade tensions."

A key finding in January was the marked increase in procurement activity across North America. This increase was entirely driven by U.S. manufacturers, as purchasing managers at Mexican and Canadian factories sanctioned procurement cutbacks, indicating a darkened near-term outlook there.

In Asia, many major producers in the region bolstered their demand for inputs to meet growing production needs, led by China and India. South Korea, in particular, reported a marked pickup in January.

By contrast, Europe's industrial economy continues to struggle, with our data indicating still-significant levels of spare capacity across the continent's supply chains. Factories in Germany, France, Italy, and the U.K. held back on material purchases in January, implying that Europe's manufacturing recession is set to persist a while longer.

The Global Supply Chain Volatility Index data was captured just prior to the U.S. administration's announcement of tariffs on China, as well as the initial announcement (and subsequent pause) of tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Interpreting the data:

Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.

Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.

JANUARY 2025 KEY FINDINGS

• DEMAND: After some pullback in the second half of 2024, global manufacturers' purchasing of raw materials is slowly recovering. In fact, global factory procurement in Asia is in line with its average, while in North America (driven by the U.S.), input purchasing is trending upward. This contrasts with the situation in Europe, which remains depressed as the region's industrial sector struggles to break out from its prolonged downturn.
  
  
  
  
• INVENTORIES: Global manufacturers' desire to safety stockpile remains contained. Reports from factories surveyed showing an increase in inventory levels due to concerns about price or supply were low in January.
  
  
  
  
• MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Reports of shortages for the globe's most critical items, such as commodities, electronic components, chemicals and food products, were at their lowest in five years during January. This suggests that suppliers remain well stocked, indicating there are minimal frictions for companies obtaining necessary materials.
  
  
  
  
• LABOR SHORTAGES: Global factory employment levels have been shrinking for several months¹ and it appears that the growing labor shortage is now preventing global suppliers from completing orders as quickly. There was a rise in reports of factory backlogs rising due to inadequate labor supply in January.
  
  
  
  
• TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs are increasing. In January, they rose to their highest level in six months.

REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY

• NORTH AMERICA: Index up to -0.22, from -0.53, a six-month high, suggesting a pick-up in procurement across the region at the start of the year.
• EUROPE: Index down to -0.61, from -0.49, suggesting that activity levels across Europe's supply chains remain weak.
• U.K.: Index fell to -0.63, from -0.41 in December, a 13-month low and signaling a weaker outlook for 2025 for U.K. manufacturing.
• ASIA: Index rises to 0.03, from -0.09, indicating that suppliers to the region are generally operating at full capacity.

For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.

Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact [email protected].

The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Mar. 12, 2025.

About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index 

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI^® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.

• A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
• A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.

A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for Europe, Asia, North America and the U.K. For more information about the methodology, click here.

About GEP

GEP^® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivaled domain expertise, smart, passionate people — this is how GEP SOFTWARE™, GEP STRATEGY™ and GEP MANAGED SERVICES™ together deliver procurement and supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and effectiveness. Our customers are the world's best companies, including more than 1,000 Fortune 500 and Global 2000 industry leaders who rely on GEP to meet ambitious strategic, financial and operational goals. A leader in multiple Gartner Magic Quadrants, GEP's cloud-native software and digital business platforms consistently win awards and recognition from industry analysts, research firms and media outlets, including Gartner, Forrester, IDC, ISG, and Spend Matters. GEP is also regularly ranked a top procurement and supply chain consulting and strategy firm, and a leading managed services provider by ALM, Everest Group, NelsonHall, IDC, ISG and HFS, among others. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.

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S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.

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¹ Source: The S&P Global PMI survey, which encompasses the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

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