Ryanair Expects 8% Traffic Growth In 2025, Pending Boeing Deliveries; Unit Costs To Increase Modestly; Q2 Fares To Drop Significantly Compared To Last Summer

OUTLOOK:

FY25 traffic is expected to grow 8% (198m to 200m passengers), subject to no worsening Boeing delivery delays.  As previously guided, we expect unit costs to rise modestly this year as ex-fuel costs (incl. pay & productivity increases, higher handling & ATC fees and the impact of multiple B737 delivery delays) are substantially offset by our fuel hedge savings, and rising net interest income, which widen Ryanair's cost advantage over its competitors.  While Q2 demand is strong, pricing remains softer than we expected, and we now expect Q2 fares to be materially lower than last summer (previously expected to be flat to modestly up).  The final H1 outcome is, however, totally dependent on close-in bookings and yields in Aug. and Sept.  As is normal at this time of year, we have almost zero Q3 and Q4 visibility, although Q4 will not benefit from last year's early Easter.  It is too early to provide meaningful FY25 PAT guidance, although we hope to be able to do so at our H1 results in Nov.  The final FY25 outcome remains subject to avoiding adverse developments during FY25 (especially given continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, repeated ATC short-staffing and capacity restrictions, or further Boeing delivery delays)."